Revolutionary regimes rarely collapse in a single dramatic moment. They fray, tire, and lose coherence long before they stumble and fall. Their decline begins not in the streets but within the squabbles of the revolutionary elite. Over time, revolutionary institutions grow rigid, self-serving, and detached from the societies in whose name they rule. Iran’s present crisis — deepened by war, economic strain, and political turbulence — offers a compelling moment to reflect on how such regimes unravel.

Developments over 2025-26 have placed the Islamic Republic under extraordinary stress. Two rounds of coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military facilities have decimated, if not eliminated, Iran’s military deterrent. Meanwhile, an economy battered by sanctions, isolation, and structural mismanagement is grappling with punishing inflation that has eroded household incomes and deepened social frustration.

The popular anger that erupted in protests in late 2025 has not disappeared; it has merely been bottled up by the war and internal repression. Yet, the underlying contradiction remains stark: Between a regime that defines itself through revolutionary defiance and a society that increasingly demands economic stability and political normalcy.

History tells us change is inevitable. We have seen revolutionary regimes evolve over time or collapse. China’s post-Mao turn under Deng Xiaoping in 1978 demonstrated how revolutionary regimes can reinvent themselves — abandoning rigid ideology in favour of pragmatic adaptation in enlightened self-interest. The Vietnamese communists did much the same in the 1990s.

Iran’s Islamic Revolution of 1979 is not immune to change. Iran now confronts pressures that have........

© Indian Express