As the world remains fixated on the Iran war, significant changes in the US-China rivalry, and their implications for India, are less in the limelight. Donald Trump’s presence as a disruptive force and Xi Jinping’s reputation as an exceptionally consequential leader obscure a deeper truth: The global order is being reshaped not only by the decisions of individual leaders but by structural forces that will outlast them. Trump is a symptom, product and catalyst of broader shifts in American political and strategic thinking. The challenge posed by China is rooted in long-term ambitions, accumulated capabilities, and national narratives that will persist beyond Xi’s tenure.

For India, this means the strategic challenges it faces are not passing clouds that will dissipate with leadership changes in Washington or Beijing.

For much of the past decade, Washington framed its relationship with Beijing as great-power competition, placing the Indo-Pacific as the pivotal theatre. In the second Trump administration, China is being seen primarily as an economic competitor rather than a systemic rival. The Western Hemisphere has been elevated above Asia as the centrepiece of US strategy, ideological rivalry has been downplayed, and transactional bargains with Beijing have been foregrounded.

Washington and Beijing now share an interest in maintaining a degree of stability in their relationship — though for different reasons. The US seeks to manage competition while attending to domestic economic and political priorities amid a profound strategic recalibration involving alliances, trade, industrial policy, and global commitments. China seeks stability to deal with economic headwinds, complete its technological self-reliance drive, and buy time in the domains in which it lags. The result is a relationship........

© Indian Express