The world heaved a sigh of relief as a two-week ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump, just hours before his deadline, and after the threat that “A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again”. One can only hope that there is a lasting solution to the deadly conflict between Iran and the US-Israel, and civilians are spared from death and destruction.

What is the lesson for India from this conflict, as well as the one between Russia and Ukraine? The world is heading towards greater uncertainty and instability. Against this backdrop, the first and foremost task for the Indian government is to ensure food security for its people. But food security cannot be achieved unless India secures its fertiliser supplies. Natural farming, though desirable as a niche market, cannot feed India.

India’s import dependence for chemical fertilisers (including their feedstocks) is to the tune of 70 per cent. Take the case of urea. India consumes roughly 40 million tonnes (MT) of urea, of which about 10MT is imported. But even what is produced at home is dependent on imported gas to the tune of almost 85 per cent. In the 40 days of the war, global urea prices were up by almost 65 per cent, from $482/tonne at the end of February to $795/tonne in the first week of April. Similarly, gas prices (Liquefied Natural Gas) went up from $12/MMBtu to $19.5/MMBtu over the same period, an increase of 63 per cent. This is the biggest hit to India, on top of not getting enough supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. Realising this, the Cabinet has already approved a higher subsidy on urea,........

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