The Virginia University’s publication, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, recently published an interesting article about the voting performance of various US states relative to the nation as a whole.

The US approach is not directly transferable to Australia. Particularly because we have only eight states and territories compared to 50 states in the US.

In particular, NSW and Victoria, are a very large proportion of the national vote. As a result, the national figures will be more significantly affected by the vote in those states than is the case with even the largest states in the US.

However, the patterns of support and the variability of that support from election to election is interesting and may provide some insights into Australian prospects in 2025.

Over the last twenty years the voting performance of voters in different states has varied in some interesting ways.

It is not surprising that the vote in NSW has tracked the national vote very closely.

The proportion of votes cast in NSW of the national vote was 31.6 per cent and therefore some similarity of pattern would be expected. However, over the seven elections since 2004 the average of variation of the NSW vote from the national two........

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