The Venezuela situation, as seen from Cuba

The political evolution of the situation in Venezuela is being analyzed in Havana. According to some Cuban experts, this suggests that in Cuba as well, Trump would prefer a “friendly takeover.”

María Corina Machado or Delcy Rodríguez? “Great American values, democracy and freedom” or the security of oil supplies and rare and precious minerals? Free elections or stability? These are the terms of a debate over Venezuela's immediate future that appears to be dividing Donald Trump's administration. From Cuba, this debate is being closely watched, also in an effort to understand the strategy behind the ongoing talks between the US State Department and high-ranking Cuban officials.

On March 31, the Venezuelan party Vente Venezuela released a photo of its leader, Maria Corina Machado, meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She wore a big smile, while the head of US diplomacy looked almost frowning. And that was no coincidence.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) – the agency that oversees US foreign sanctions – had just decided to lift sanctions against Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez. She has reestablished diplomatic relations with the US, replaced the military leadership (accused by the Trump camp of colluding with the Tren de Aragua drug cartel), granted the tycoon de facto control over the sale of Venezuelan crude oil and, together with her brother Jorge, ensured political control and social stability.

These are serious concessions. And in the midst of the Middle East war, they are all the more necessary for the Trump administration. Thus, the roadmap outlined by Rubio after the January 3........

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