Beijing has appeared more confident and pragmatic in dealing with the Trump 2.0 administration. Drawing on its experience with Trump’s tariff policies and the Biden administration’s curbs, China has been active in retaliating to impose costs on the US this time. Simultaneously, the leadership has doubled down on insulating the Chinese economy from external pressures. Taken together, what clearly emerges is that while China will drive a hard bargain to maximise diplomatic and material concessions from Trump in bilateral engagements, it will also aim to strengthen its strategic immunity against the US further.

In the second term of the Trump administration, Chinese bargaining vis-à-vis the US has exhibited greater risk tolerance and willingness to adopt measured escalation.[3] Notwithstanding the economic strain and impact of reciprocal tariffs on Chinese domestic industries and foreign investments, Beijing not only matched US tariffs but also restricted the flow of rare earth minerals. While there were no winners in the trade war, Washington’s negotiated scaling down of tariffs, along with the pausing of a 400 million USD arms aid to Taiwan, was perceived by Beijing as a success, enabling it to utilise its economic leverage to safeguard its interests against US measures and claim relative parity with the latter.[4]

In the period leading up to Trump’s visit, as trade frictions continued, the same pattern was observed. For instance, in March, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched retaliatory probes against US practices and measures that hindered global production, supply chains, and the trade of green products after the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative initiated an investigation against China and 15 other countries over the issue of overcapacity.[5]  Similarly, in May, China also, for the first time, invoked the Rules on Counteracting Unjustified Extra-territorial Application of Foreign Legislation and Other Measures, a counter-sanction law passed in 2021, and asked Chinese companies to ignore US sanctions linked to Iranian oil trade. An article in the People’s Daily described China’s move as a “pivotal step” to resist US long-arm jurisdiction.[6] Thereafter, Beijing also blocked Meta’s acquisition of the Chinese-founded AI startup Manus, which operates in Singapore, further signalling that pursuing a deal with the US might not impede the government from asserting its strategic interests in a way that could be perceived as offensive by........

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