Every popular protest reaches a juncture when governments can no longer ignore it. The agitation led by the Cockroach Janata Party crossed that threshold this week. Until now, it was largely dismissed as another social media phenomenon that had online traction but was incapable of mobilising people on the streets. Comparisons with the 2011 anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare were frequent and often unflattering. Those assessments no longer appear adequate.

Social movements, much like elections, often hinge on tipping points. The CJP is now past that point, something every political movement desperately seeks. No wonder then, all kinds of political actors have started paying attention to it, and the government has been forced to recalculate the risk matrix.

The temptation today would be to either exaggerate the similarity of this agitation with the anti-corruption movement of 2011 or dismiss it altogether. Both would be mistakes. The 2011 agitation eventually transformed Indian politics, gave birth to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), permanently damaged the legitimacy of the UPA-II government, and created conditions for the single-party majority of the BJP under Narendra Modi in 2014.

The political contexts are fundamentally different. By 2011, the UPA government was confronting its first major nationwide protest after nearly seven years in office. The corruption scandals had already weakened its moral authority, and the government appeared hesitant and internally divided. The Modi government, by contrast, has governed India for over a decade and has weathered repeated waves of mobilisation, from award wapsi to the JNU protests, from the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act movement........

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