India, Hormuz, and the unipolar illusion
The US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and Tehran’s Gulf-wide retaliation with drones and missiles, now in their third week, have rocked global energy markets and affected economies worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz remains near-impassable. The US recently struck military targets at Iran’s Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian crude exports flow, while warning that its oil infrastructure could be next. Israel then escalated further by striking Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, prompting Tehran to hit back at major energy facilities across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. Brent crude has surged past $115 a barrel. What was intended as a swift assertion of US dominance has transformed into a widening regional conflict, leaving spiralling oil prices, damaged energy infrastructure and deepening instability as its principal dividends. Even overwhelming military power does not automatically translate into uncontested control.
Nearly 10 million Indian citizens live and work across the Gulf, remitting over $50 billion annually and sustaining millions of families at home. India also supplies 12% of the global seafaring workforce. As tensions continue to escalate, the safety of our citizens and protection of their livelihoods demand that India engage all parties with greater diplomatic assertiveness, commensurate with our huge stakes.
Almost half of India’s crude imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, while our gas dependence on it is even more concentrated. Ensuring the safe passage of Indian vessels through the Gulf will require our active diplomatic efforts with all combatants, including Iran. India secured the safe passage of two LPG tankers through the Strait by reaching out to Iran — evidence that our bilateral channels retain value even amid conflict. Nonetheless, the disruption in the Gulf has compelled our government to prioritise LPG........
