India’s greatest climate challenge today is not merely excessive or insufficient rainfall in certain parts of the region. Rather, it is the realities of the country’s climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity deficit that an increasingly unpredictable monsoon — droughts and floods are now two sides of the same monsoon — has exposed.

As per the India Meteorological Department, June 2026 recorded a 40% rainfall deficit, making it the fifth driest June in more than a century. Between June 1 and July 1, central India recorded the maximum deficit at 45% below normal, followed by east and northeast India at 40% below normal, and the southern peninsula stood at a 26% deficit. Immediately after, the first week of July brought intense cloudburst-like rainfall events across Kerala, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, the Western Ghats, Gurugram, amongst other areas, even as Delhi experienced Chennai-like humidity with little rain.

Delayed monsoon affects agriculture

Meanwhile, the delayed onset of the monsoon, reinforced by strengthening El Niño conditions, left kharif sowing nearly 20% behind last year’s levels. Given that Indian agriculture remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, this has raised several concerns. According to the ministry of earth science’s assessment of the climate crisis, days receiving more than 150 mm of rainfall increased by nearly 75% between 1950 and 2015.

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This reflects a long-term shift rather than a recent anomaly with widespread extreme rainfall events across central........

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