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What to expect in the Chancellor’s Budget – and the Scottish version to follow

2 1
19.10.2025

As finance ministers meet in Edinburgh, Brian Taylor spotlights the economic challenges – and the likely response from the Chancellor

Ideas and options aplenty, no doubt, when finance ministers from the constituent parts of this United Kingdom gathered in Edinburgh to confer.

But, in reality, a single, core thought. Just what will be in the Chancellor’s Budget next month – and how might it affect those constituent parts?

One participant, James Murray, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, will have had a closer insight than the host, Scotland’s Finance Secretary Shona Robison, and her counterparts from Wales and Northern Ireland.

Perhaps, in a collegiate spirit, he will have expanded a little upon hints from the Chancellor this week. That, in the light of a relatively static economy, she is looking at “further measures on tax and spending, to make sure the public finances always add up”.

That is, in addition to the £40bn of tax rises she introduced in her budget at this time last year.

There are limits, however. Budget purdah on the key decisions still applies. Plus, in practice, the Treasury will not have reached final conclusions. Not looking upbeat, though.

Under protocol, the Treasury shares some of its early and emergent thinking with the devolved nations on a strictly confidential basis. Again, though, there are limits.

As with the rest of us, those devolved nations still have to operate largely on hint and hope when it comes to calculating their own financial plans. Scotland’s budget will emerge on January the 13th. Including, of course, Scottish income tax details.

At this stage, the language from the Chancellor is intriguing – and politically significant. For example, this week, she noted with approbation the prospect that the UK will have the fastest current growth in the G7.

Yet she added: “For........

© Herald Scotland