As voters in Scotland, Wales and England get ready to cast their votes – and the Prime Minister edges closer to the EU, Herald writer Brian Taylor calculates which contest will be most closely observed in Downing Street. 

Let us talk about the elections pending on May 7.  The elections in England, that is.  The local council contests which may determine the future of the Prime Minister. 

To be quite clear, the elections to the Scottish Parliament – and, indeed, to the Welsh Senedd – are of far greater significance than the exercise to choose 5014 councillors in 136 English councils. 

Our new MSPs will determine the political character of the Scottish Parliament and will thus set the legislative parameters for the next First Minister.  For the domestic governance of Scotland. 

But those elections in England matter too.  In themselves and in helping shape Westminster’s ultimate verdict upon our struggling Prime Minister. 

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Yes, the Scottish elections will have a substantial UK impact.  But, if you are an English MP, they can seem distant, aberrant even.  Driven by factors – such as Scotland’s constitutional future – which are of limited immediate concern to your electors.

MPs from English constituencies will study the Scottish outcome with care.  They will draw conclusions about the future of Scottish politics.  Perhaps about the Union. 

But nothing impinges more upon the consciousness of an elected politician than a potential threat to their own seat.  Cross-party banter and badinage they can ignore.  But pose a challenge to their own future – and you will have their full attention. 

And, purely in those terms, the English elections matter more to English MPs.  Scotland’s political discourse is distinct.  Scotland’s voting pattern – not least with the SNP in the lead – is different and does not easily translate into a comprehensible analysis for English constituencies. 

So our English chums will consider the outcome in England.  Has the Tory slide persisted?  Have Labour been beaten?  If so, how badly?  If so – and this might be the crucial point – by whom?  The Greens?  Reform? 

Calculations based upon that arithmetic may determine whether Sir Keir Starmer has a prolonged future in Downing Street. 

In effect, he is on probation.  Because of the U-turns on tax and benefits.  Above all, because of the Mandelson affair.  Indeed, his problems were so severe that Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, declared that the PM should quit. 

That appeal was ignored by Sir Keir – and by potential Labour successors.  Partly because the challengers were not ready.  And partly because they want him to take any hit going from the May elections.  Again, predominantly in England. 

Scottish Labour critics of the PM were privately advised to hold fire until after May 7.   In vain, did they point out that the party in Scotland could not afford to wait.   

It is intriguing to watch the English body politic coping with multi-party politics.  With the Greens and Reform.  With the ever-present Liberal Democrats.  In response, the two big parties seem lost and unsure.

Not every council seat in England is up for grabs.  These elections fall mostly in seats last contested in 2022.  In all the London boroughs.  In Metropolitan councils like Manchester, Newcastle – and Birmingham, with its two-year bin strike.  In six Mayoral contests. 

In county and district councils which will soon be replaced by single-tier authorities.  Labour tried to limit the damage by postponing those elections.  No deal.  Reform protested and the Electoral Commission said postponement “risked damaging public confidence”. 

And so Labour, defending more than 2500 seats, is nervous.  So too the Tories, striving to retain 1300 wards. 

The LibDems are hopeful of success, building upon gains when these wards were last contested, four years ago.  But, perhaps inevitably, the focus is largely upon Reform UK and the Greens, both seeking to break through from occasional, transient triumphs to solid success, taking control of key councils. 

The Greens in England are upbeat after their victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election.  There, they gained from discontent with Labour.  Among working class voters over the cost of living.  And among Muslim communities over Gaza. 

They believe that they have the momentum, led by the effervescent Zack Polanski.  The Scottish Greens – a distinct party – hope some of that seeming brilliance can shine upon them too. 

Nigel Farage of Reform UK sounds ebullient.  Not, it should be said, a novel phenomenon.  He has described the local elections as “the single most important event” leading up to the next UK General Election. 

But the confident Mr Farage – and the more subtle Greens – also know that these elections can present them with a challenge.  What if, they ponder privately, they make gains but fail to take control of any or many councils?  What if none of the Mayoral contests fall their way? 

Both parties know that their established opponents in Labour and the Tories are simply yearning to say that the bubble has burst, that the peak has passed.  They cannot wait for such an outcome.

That is particularly true of Reform.  In many ways, as so often in politics, the issue is managing expectation.  Watch out for the big parties setting Reform unreasonable targets – then lampooning them if they fail. 

Remember the council elections in 1990?  Labour had a successful night – yet the Conservative chairman Kenneth Baker turned the narrative around by focusing on big Tory gains in the key London boroughs of Westminster and Wandsworth. 

Not sure that spin trick would work now.  The media spotlight is (a bit) less London-centric.  Voters are more sceptical.  But watch out for efforts to drive the narrative, post polling. 

I was mightily intrigued by the Prime Minister’s declaration of closer ties with the EU.  Partly, that is pragmatism in the face of economic decline and an unstable White House. 

But also it is about narrative, about polarising political discourse.  Positing Labour as the antidote to Brexit – and thus Reform.  Seeking to corral those voters who detest Reform into the Labour camp. 

There were critics aplenty.  John Swinney said the PM was “sleepwalking” over the cost of living, acting “like Boris Johnson in the early days of Covid”.  He meant it to sting.  Only Liz Truss is a bigger insult. 

The PM, of course, has one or two items in his in-tray, not least global conflict.  But Team Starmer will still pay very close attention to those elections, including across England.  And we should too.

Brian Taylor is a former political editor for BBC Scotland and a columnist for The Herald. He cherishes his family, the theatre - and Dundee United FC.

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