For decades, the glittering skylines of Dubai or the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states have epitomised something rare in the modern world: a place where global talent and migrant labour could converge in search of good, respectable earnings, prosperity, stability, and opportunity. Hundreds of professionals and skilled workers from India, bankers from Europe, construction workers from South Asia and entrepreneurs from around the world have flocked to cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.

The reason was simple but powerful: tax-free salaries, world-class infrastructure, safe cities, less crime and abundant employment. For millions of expatriates, the Gulf gradually ceased to be just a temporary workplace. It became, in many ways, a second home.

However, the ongoing military and conflict tensions in West Asia are now challenging that long-held sense of stability. With airspace closures, missile interceptions, evacuation advisories and travel disruptions, a feeling of uncertainty has suddenly emerged in a region that expatriates once saw as safe and predictable. What many global professionals considered one of the most secure places to live and work is now, at least for the time being, facing the impact of regional geopolitical tensions.

Few parts of the world depend on expatriates as deeply as the Gulf. In the UAE, foreigners make up nearly 80 per cent of the population. Across the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), migrant labour and foreign professionals drive construction, finance, healthcare, aviation, hospitality, and technology.

Indians form the largest expatriate community. More than nine million Indians live and work across West Asia or the Middle East, employed in sectors ranging from construction and logistics to medicine, finance and information technology. Their remittances support millions of families back home and contribute billions of dollars annually to India’s economy.

The Gulf’s appeal has only grown in recent years. Infrastructure expansion in the UAE, massive development projects in Saudi Arabia, and the region’s strategic role in global trade have created a steady demand for both blue-collar and white-collar workers.

Official migration data illustrates this shift. In 2025 alone, as reported by the media, more than 200,000 Indian blue-collar workers moved to the UAE, surpassing Saudi Arabia for the first time as the top destination for Indian labour migration. Other than high wages, tax-free income, and proximity to India, have made the UAE particularly appealing. But crises have a way of testing even the strongest economic ecosystems.

Since February 28, when joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory attacks across several of the Gulf countries in the region. Millions of expatriates have found themselves navigating a very unfamiliar reality. Intermittent blasts and airspace closures have disrupted thousands of flights, leaving travellers stranded. In Qatar alone, around 8,000 passengers were stuck in transit last week when the airspace shut down abruptly. Across the UAE, residents and tourists scrambled for alternative routes as airlines cancelled flights. Some expatriates resorted to lengthy road journeys to neighbouring Oman or Saudi Arabia to catch international flights.

For many, the experience has been unsettling precisely because it was so unexpected. The Gulf’s reputation as a zone insulated from regional instability had long been one of its greatest strengths. Even during past scattered crises or the Israel-Hamas conflict, cities such as Dubai maintained an image of order and safety.

That perception is now facing a rare test. The consequences of prolonged instability could extend far beyond temporary travel disruptions. For expatriates, particularly migrant workers, the greatest fear is economic uncertainty. Many employment contracts in the Gulf are closely tied to specific sectors such as construction, tourism or aviation. If tensions escalate or persist for months, businesses may slow expansion plans, infrastructure projects could face delays, and companies may begin reassessing staffing requirements.

For blue-collar workers, such shifts can be devastating. These workers, like construction workers, drivers, hospitality staff, or any other service employees, often operate on tight financial margins. They also have to support families in their home countries through monthly remittances of their salaries. Even a brief interruption in employment can have cascading consequences for households thousands of kilometres away. If the perception of stability weakens, many may reconsider long-term commitments such as purchasing property or relocating families.

Gulf’s real estate markets have boomed. Millions of expats have invested in the properties in West Asia. Dubai’s luxury property boom, in particular, has attracted investors from India, Europe and several other countries. Entire neighbourhoods have been built around expatriate lifestyles, international schools, upscale retail centres, and residential communities catering to global professionals.

Property investments anywhere usually depend on a place’s confidence and stability. If geopolitical tensions persist for a long time, some expatriates may delay or reconsider their plans to buy property. Gulf governments are also trying to reassure residents and investors that the situation remains under control. The big question now is whether this conflict will be only a temporary shock or bring long-term changes.

Countries in the Gulf know very well that their economies depend heavily on expatriates. In recent years, nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have introduced several reforms to attract global talent. These include long-term residency visas, property-linked visas, and easier business rules. Such steps are part of wider plans where the leadership of these countries are more becoming people friendly and bringing reforms to diversify their economies into new ventures and reduce dependence on oil.

Most of these countries’ governments invested heavily in safety and security systems. Even presently, with unexpected aerial attacks in their respective countries, residents and locals say daily life is continuing mostly as normal, but fear shadows. In some places, schools have temporarily closed or shifted to online classes, offices are encouraging remote work, and authorities are closely managing information to avoid panic. The officers and the rulers themselves are visiting public malls to ensure that expatriates feel confident. These steps are meant to show that the region remains stable despite the tensions.

History also shows that the Gulf region has faced many crises before. Over the past four decades, West Asia has seen wars, financial crises and sharp drops in oil prices. Yet cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi have repeatedly recovered and continued to grow as global business centres.

The present conflict may also turn out to be another temporary shock rather than a major long-term change. The economic fundamentals of the Gulf countries remain strong. Oil revenues still support their economies, while large development plans, like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s push into technology and innovation, are unlikely to stop. Another important advantage of the Gulf is its location. The region serves as a major aviation and trade hub connecting Asia, Europe and Africa. This strategic position cannot easily be replaced by other regions.

For millions of expatriates, the Gulf still offers unique economic opportunities. Few other places allow a young professional to earn a tax-free salary while working in an international business environment. The region is also well-connected, with major cities just a few hours’ flight away. For blue-collar workers as well, the Gulf continues to offer better wages compared to many other labour destinations. Salaries are often 10 to 25 percent higher than what workers might earn elsewhere, making the region an attractive choice.

Despite the current tensions, many expatriates believe that the situation will stabilise soon. Long-time residents say the region has experienced similar periods of uncertainty before, but they usually did not last very long. In the end, the Gulf’s expatriate economy depends on a simple balance between opportunity and risk. At present, geopolitical tensions have slightly affected that balance. But unless instability continues for a long time, the Gulf’s main attractions, economic opportunity, global connectivity and tax-free income, are likely to remain strong. For now, the famous “Dubai dream” may have been shaken, but it is certainly not broken.

Surinder Singh Oberoi,

National Editor Greater Kashmir

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