The immediate panic around the Strait of Hormuz has eased, but the economic impact on Asia is far from over. In a significant development, Iran’s foreign minister has said the Strait is “completely open” for commercial shipping during the ceasefire, leading to a sharp fall in global oil prices.

However, within minutes, Donald Trump posted “THANK YOU!” on Truth Social, and soon clarified that the United States naval blockade on Iranian ports will continue until a wider peace agreement is reached. These mixed signals show the fragile situation; while the world’s most important energy sea route may be open for now, it is still not fully stable. Many observers and analysts believe that this reopening may not change as much as it appears at first glance.

On paper, Iran’s move should calm markets. Nearly a fifth of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption an immediate global concern. The reopening has already softened crude prices and eased fears of a prolonged supply shock. Yet the situation on the water remains murky.

Shipping companies, still cautious after recent attacks that killed at least ten seafarers, are unlikely to rush back. Their priority remains crew safety, and many will wait for a sustained period without hostilities before fully resuming operations. The experience of the past Red Sea crisis, where traffic took years to partially normalise after Houthi attacks, still looms large.

But Hormuz is different in two crucial ways: there is no viable alternative route, and the sheer volume of oil and gas passing through it makes a prolonged diversion economically untenable. These realities create strong incentives for a faster return, but still, not an immediate one.

Key operational questions also remain unresolved. Will Iran insist on its role in ensuring........

© Greater Kashmir