The next four months will be critical for the Indian economy as several conjectures will soon face concrete outcomes. The financial year began under the shadow of tariff shocks, and while the government has undertaken several tax measures to support the economy, their results will become evident in the coming months.

First is the issue of tariffs. Negotiations with the United States are ongoing, with expectations that the 50% tariff may be reduced to 25% or even lower once the deals materialise. Such an outcome would likely mean greater market access for the U.S., along with rationalised tariff rates. However, oil imports from Russia—accounting for over 30% of India’s total imports—remain a tricky issue.

They cannot be abruptly reduced given the sovereignty concerns and energy security implications. Fortunately, with global crude prices relatively benign, sourcing oil from other nations at competitive rates may help moderate dependency on Russia. The results of these shifts should be evident by the end of the fiscal........

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