The next four months of the year will be critical for the Indian economy as several questions that have been posed and conjectured will witness definite outcomes. First is the issue of tariff. There have been talks going on with the USA on tariffs and there is expectation that the 50% tariff will be lowered to 25% or lower once these deals fructify. This would mean having a trade deal where there is more access provided to the USA with probably rationalized tariff rates. The issue of oil imports is tricky as it cannot be withdrawn immediately as Russia does account for over 30% of total imports.

Besides, there are issues of sovereignty involved where there can be no compromise. With global prices being benign for oil it is possible to source oil from other countries at a lower cost Second, is the impact on the economy on account of the tariff structure. The final rate can be 25% or lower but it would still be higher than the 3- 4% which was imposed earlier. The industries that are facing challenges are textiles, precious stones, and handicrafts among others. While the industry associations did flag the problems of lower business and hence impact on viability, the broader issue of........

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