Even as the country has entered the southwest monsoon season—June to September—concerns over the tardy progress of the monsoon, El Niño threat and tightness in synthetic fertiliser availability occupy the discourse on agriculture.

While the monsoon broke over the Kerala coast on June 4, its northward progress in the following 10 days has stalled. The India Meteorological Department has downgraded its forecast of rainfall from the earlier 92% to 90% of the long-period average of 870 mm, with a model error of /- 4%. Ninety per cent of 870 mm translates to about 780 mm.

Terms like ‘Super El Niño’, severe drought and threat to food security are doing the rounds. So, how grave is the situation? The looming threat of El Niño is very real, but we do not yet know how severe it will turn out to be. However, we have to be ready to face the worst.

Rainfall Distribution More Critical

First, it is important to recognise that the temporal (over four months) and spatial (geographic) distribution of rainfall is more critical than the........

© Free Press Journal