Into its seventh week, the ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf region show no clear sign of abating. In less than 24 hours after the Strait of Hormuz was declared open, it was shut. As of today, no one knows when the risk of military action would decisively end and on what terms.

It is clear that the damage inflicted by the military action will leave its impact on the global energy market in the months ahead. There is apprehension that global growth prospects may weaken. To be sure, early this year, the world crude oil market was projected to be in a state of surplus for 2026. No wonder Brent crude was hovering around the low 60s ($ per barrel).

Crude: Supply disruptions and price volatility

Crude: Things dramatically changed in March 2026. In the epicentre of the world’s energy supplies, the Middle East, production outages are real, damage to energy facilities and storage infrastructure is real, and the virtual closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz is real. This has caused supply chain disruption of massive proportions.

Every day, 20 million barrels of crude oil (a fifth of global production) and massive quantities of natural gas, most of it destined for the Asia Pacific region, including India, pass through the Strait of........

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