The Iran conflict has stretched into its ninth week. What was widely expected to be a short campaign of a few weeks now seems to be running into months. There seem to be two possibilities at this stage when an uneasy ceasefire is holding and a blockade of the Hormuz Strait is in place.

One view from the US is that the Iranian regime cannot withstand the economic pain much longer, as it cannot sell oil. Iran's latest signals indicate that she is willing to compromise on the Hormuz Strait but regards uranium enrichment as her sovereign right. The US has signalled that there cannot be a compromise on uranium enrichment, and on the Hormuz Strait some accommodation is possible. As pointed out in these columns (April 6, 2026), the US is self-sufficient in oil and gas production. President Trump has met oil executives and seems to be exploring price caps on gasoline to contain the domestic political fallout. The US seems to be prepared for the long haul if needed, and a blockade of disruption of oil supplies for several months may be on the cards.

The second view is Iran is unlikely to yield to the blockade. The country faced economic sanctions for decades and can withstand the additional pain inflicted by the blockade, as the regime is unconcerned about the suffering of the people and is not accountable to voters. In that case, the bombing of Iran will be resumed by the US and Israel, and all bets are off. Given the events so far, a resumption of war will lead to further destruction of Iranian infrastructure, and Iran may resort to unrestrained attacks on the oil and gas fields of the GCC countries, leading to potential permanent damage with long-term........

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