On the eve of the Bihar assembly elections, the NDA and MGB (Mahagathbandhan) coalitions have yet to set their houses in order, although both are aware that the chemistry between alliance partners is a critical factor. Given that no party has won a majority of seats since 1995, victory is contingent on smooth cooperation between mutually dependent allies while getting the caste arithmetic right.

Both alliances are predicated on aggregation of votes at the constituency level. In the fractured political landscape of Bihar, where no party has managed a vote share of more than 25 per cent in two decades, allies must pool their votes to win. Thanks to the first-past-the-post system, the addition of even a few percentage points can bridge the vote deficit. This implies that small caste-based parties command considerable bargaining power.

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), for example, has been allocated 29 seats by the NDA. This may seem over-generous to a party that won a single seat in the 2020 assembly elections, but the decision is quite pragmatic. For one thing, the LJP’s core vote base consists of the Dusadh community, which is widely distributed across the state. This makes the LJP a useful ally, capable of damaging rival parties. That’s precisely what it did in 2020, by wresting a large chunk (around 13 per cent) of BJP supporters away from the Janata Dal (United).

Bringing the LJP on board is intended........

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