Not long ago, exit polls in India were treated as a sort of reliable post-poll indicator, not precise forecasts. But lately, they have become an election-night drama and a narrative-building exercise. Instead of capturing the pulse of people regarding who they have voted for and what shaped their vote choice, exit polls have hit such lows that they are no longer credible analyses of poll data and voting preferences, but blatantly biased, unreliable and speculative exercises. An obvious bias towards the ruling party at the Centre was seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls and practically in every election since then, including the latest round of elections in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry.

Questions raised over credibility of exit polls

What is disconcerting is not just the lack of confidence in exit polls but also the media’s silence on the cloud of suspicion over the voting process and the credibility of the Election Commission. The BJP’s big win in West Bengal is a major boost for the party and its electioneering style. But the question is, what caused the Trinamool Congress’s debacle? Of the five Assembly polls, West Bengal was the high-stakes battle for the BJP and its rival TMC. Neither the former was anticipated to sweep Bengal nor the latter was projected to lose so badly. At best, it was a tight contest that could have gone either way, though the TMC was expected to hold its ground. So, what caused such a tectonic shift in Bengal’s political landscape?

BJP’s Bengal sweep seen as political turning point

The seismic shift has not only come as a stunning surprise, but the scale of the BJP’s sweep is difficult to fathom, given that there were no visible signs of a massive saffron surge in a state which has voted for........

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