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Why Doesn’t High Growth Feel Like Prosperity In India?

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yesterday

An Uber driver says he works longer hours than before yet takes home less money. After fuel, maintenance, loan instalments, and the platform’s deductions, little remains. His experience cannot establish how the entire economy is performing. But he asks a reasonable question: if India is growing rapidly, why is making a living becoming harder? It brings to mind the title of Erma Bombeck’s book, ‘If Life Is a Bowl of Cherries, What Am I Doing in the Pits?’ If India is growing rapidly, why is making a living becoming harder?

India’s GDP grew at 7.8% during the April-June quarter, which is impressive. The International Monetary Fund, Reserve Bank of India and other agencies have revised growth estimates upwards for the whole year. Sustaining rapid growth amid international uncertainty is an achievement. This column is not about the controversy regarding the 7.8 number, which we can take as acceptable.

Does the disappointment, therefore, reflect excessive pessimism? Expectations rise with prosperity. Every expanding economy contains struggling businesses and disappointed job seekers. A few conversations cannot provide a representative assessment of a country as large and diverse as India. Yet, the evidence of unease extends beyond anecdotes. The RBI’s September urban consumer confidence survey recorded a Current Situation Index of 87.9, the lowest since March 2023, below the neutral level of 100. About 54.5% of respondents believed the general economic situation had worsened over the preceding year, against 25.3% who thought it had improved.

Rural responses were also revealing. Only 20.6% reported higher income than a year earlier, while 30.5% reported a decline. Such findings give household discomfort a firmer basis than casual impressions or political commentary. There is, however,........

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