Opinion

LEE CARTER: The summer polls missed the point: Voters are moving — and the midterms begin

The midterms haven’t really started yet. Now they do

By Lee Hartley Carter Fox News

Published September 9, 2026 11:36am EDT

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GOP midterm convention kicks off as Republicans fight for House control

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss the Republican midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Emmer details economic indicators, gas prices and voter turnout projections for the November House elections.

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If you think you know who’s winning the midterms, I have some bad news.

The voters who will decide them are just starting to pay attention.

I say this as someone who loves polls. They tell us what people care about, what they’re worried about and where the political opportunities are.

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But summer horse-race numbers come with a giant asterisk:

The electorate isn’t finished yet.

We saw it all summer.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed appeared headed toward a comfortable Democratic Senate primary victory. He won by about a point.

LEE CARTER: ELECTION SHOCKER: THE WINNERS HAD A SLOGAN; THE LOSERS JUST HAD RÉSUMÉS

In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong led David Crowley by roughly 20 points in two polls. Crowley won.

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In Minnesota, a public poll had Angie Craig ahead of Peggy Flanagan by two. Flanagan won by nearly 20.

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