Opinion

SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats could be riding a midterm wave. These numbers should terrify the GOP

Historical trends and President Trump's low approval rating suggest the president's party faces steep losses in House and Senate

By Doug Schoen , Carly Cooperman Fox News

Published October 19, 2026 5:00am EDT

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Sen. Tim Scott on battle for Senate control as midterms heat up

Senator Tim Scott joins anchor John Roberts to break down the battle for Senate control as the midterm elections approach. They analyze the latest power rankings, key toss-up races, and top economic issues like the cost of living. Scott discusses Republican strategies to win the majority with nineteen days left before voters head to the polls.

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With an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — among their highest of the cycle — Democrats could well be on the cusp of a major wave election.

We say this based on historical trends and the current political mood. At this point in 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats led the generic ballot by roughly 7 points before gaining 41 House seats.

Moreover, the president’s party losing seats in midterms is essentially law in American politics. It has happened in all but three elections since the Roosevelt administration.

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From 1934 through 2018, the president’s party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats, and over the past five midterms, the average net loss for the president’s party has been 31 House seats.

To be clear, Republicans could make up ground for a number of critical reasons: Democrats remain divided ideologically, lack a message and an identity other than being anti-President Trump, and Republicans have a considerable cash advantage.

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