Too much fire, not enough cease: Iran tightens its grip on global oil trade on eve of peace talks

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

Markets: Post-rally selloff underway.

Iran: It’s not going well.

David Zaslav’s $887 million golden parachute.

$1 trillion: The amount of capex needed to make AI work.

Kalshi trading volume hits $3 billion a week.

Live map shows ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.

Taking the gains from the ceasefire

Oil was at $97 per barrel and moving upward this morning. And as surely as night follows day, S&P 500 futures declined on that news, sinking 0.37% before the open in New York. The index was up 2.51% yesterday on the prospect of a ceasefire in the Middle East. 

But as dawn broke over Asia and Europe, traders decided to lock in some of their gains from yesterday’s relief rally. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.42% in early trading. Europe’s Stoxx 600 slipped 0.55% before lunch. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave up 0.73%. South Korea’s KOSPI declined 1.61%. 

Look on the bright side, Bespoke Investment Group told clients: “Since the lows at the end of March, the S&P has rallied 7% and is now a little more than 2% away from all-time highs.” It is also back above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

“Clients sold the bounce” last week, according to Bank of America’s Jill Carey Hall. Although the S&P 500 was up 3.4% in the period, the “first up-week since the Iran conflict began, clients were net sellers of U.S. equities for the fourth week” in a row, she said in a note. They net sold $2.6 billion.

Bitcoin ticked up nearly 6% in the last five days to $71K. In case you missed it: Adam Back, responding to a New York Times investigation, denied he is Satoshi, again.

The Fed looks hawkish. The Fed published the minutes of its last meeting and Wall Street analysts largely read them as hawkish—meaning that it’s less likely than previously thought to deliver further interest rate cuts this year. That would be negative for stock markets, where investors prefer successive rounds of cheaper money. “The ‘vast majority’ of [Federal Open Markets Committee] participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment are elevated, with many noting that both have intensified amid developments in the Middle East,” EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in an........

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