Suddenly, Wall Street is worried that the U.S. economy is more ‘vulnerable’ than it looks

Bespoke Investment Group spotted something it did not like in the most recent National Federation of Independent Business survey this week: That small businesses increasingly report their “number one problem” is poor sales. Of all the options in the survey, “the one problem that you don’t want to be your #1 problem is poor sales,” the asset manager says. “During prior economic contractions, we’ve seen this reading for poor sales tick sharply higher. As shown below, while still relatively low for now, it has begun to tick higher again recently.” 

The NFIB index fell to 97.9 in September, from 98.7 in August. “The other major business surveys also generally suggest that activity lost a little momentum towards the end of Q3, likely weighed down by the rebound in global energy prices,” according to Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics. (They also note that only 411 companies responded to the survey, down from a level of around 1,200 over a decade ago.)

Jobs growth is “essentially zero” outside healthcare

Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics thinks the U.S. economy is “vulnerable.” He is especially worried about the labor market: “Monthly payroll growth has averaged around 40,000 over the past year and has been essentially zero when excluding the healthcare sector. Hiring is moribund, hours worked are very low, and while the unemployment rate remains low, that is partly a........

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