U.S. shale executives have no idea when the oil market will go off a cliff

One of the biggest questions looming over the oil market is when the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will reach its effective minimum level, but industry executives have offered a wide range of answers, underscoring the uncertainty hanging over prices.

The Trump administration agreed to release SPR reserves in March as part of a coordinated effort by the International Energy Agency to address the supply shock from the Iran war.

The conflict is now entering its eighth month with little sign of diplomatic progress to end it, and global inventories are continuing to drop toward critical levels.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser estimated more than 1 billion barrels of oil have been withdrawn from stockpiles around the world, including those from companies and governments.

“The system is already straining,” he said at a conference in London. “And with precious little else the world can turn to, the supply resilience cushion is scarily thin.”

While Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to prewar levels, the rebound is fragile, and there are already signs a resurgence of Iranian attacks on shipping has slowed........

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