Wall Street has pretty much written off the idea of a Fed rate cut at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

Iran is taking a toll on market outlook

AI revolution poses more of a status risk than job threat

Goldman Sachs on Warsh’s balance sheet plan

Hybrid hangover on transit figures

How to build an AI film that debuts at Cannes

S&P 500 futures are up 0.2%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is up 0.4%  before lunch.

Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI is up 0.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 2.68%. India’s Nifty 50 is up 0.36%. China’s CSI 300 is up 1.3%. 

Brent crude is at $105 a barrel this morning.

Bitcoin is down to $77,256.

There’s more head-scratching to be done in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, with reports now emerging that the Iranian regime may seek to place tolls on travel through the Strait of Hormuz—yet another obstacle to navigate in the bid to normalize global oil supply lines. 

Though President Trump has been adamant about the need for the Strait to reopen as soon as possible, he’s not keen on oil suppliers having to pay for passage, which was previously free. 

“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” Trump told reporters last night. “It’s international—it’s an international waterway—they’re not charging tolls.” 

“Investors have little more than sentiment when assessing risks around the Iran war,” UBS’s Paul Donovan told clients this morning. “Trying to assess Iran’s position using little more than semi-official news statements and viral Lego-style videos does not create precise analysis."

AI’s real threat? Status loss

Backstage at the Sana AI summit at the New York Public Library on Thursday, Fortune’s Nick Lichtenberg spoke with top economist Tyler Cowen.

The George Mason University economist and Bloomberg columnist offers an........

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