The richest 20% are the only ones powering the U.S. economy, says top economist, but their prospects are entirely reliant on teetering stock prices

In the run-up to the internet bubble, the richest 20% of American consumers made up 50% of spending—boosted by the ballooning valuations of their portfolios. Fast forward to the era of AI, and again, the richest households in the U.S. are gaining confidence as their asset valuations grow. Only this time, the spending of the top 20% accounts for 60% of personal outlays—meaning economic growth is even more dependent on a small subset of households than in previous cycles.This isn’t a problem, per se, writes Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. But it does mean that the health of the U.S. economy is balanced on an increasingly precarious set of dominoes.

In a note shared with Fortune, published earlier this week, Zandi wrote households raking in $200,000 or more a year were powering overall spending. In the year ending Q1 2026, outlays by this top fifth percentile grew by 6.5%—or 4% after inflation.

Meanwhile, outlays for the bottom 80% were unchanged once inflation is taken into account, Zandi notes: “This gap has persisted since the pandemic, which helps explain why most Americans are upset about their financial situations and the broader economy’s performance.”

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