President Trump’s Golden Dome will cost $1.2 trillion, the CBO says, five times more than initially expected

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

A “complete reversal”: Market bears are getting louder.

Could China flip Iran? 

Export policy built into Nvidia compensation packages.

The K-shaped economy is only getting worse.

President Trump’s Golden Dome plan will cost $1.2 trillion.

Today’s edition was written by Eleanor Pringle, Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets.Quick note: Subscribe to the forthcoming Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter will deliver clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world’s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.

Traders on edge as they wait for long-promised peace deal with Iran

S&P 500 futures were back up 0.8% this morning after a volatile day on the markets yesterday. The index closed down 0.16% yesterday.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up 0.7% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.5% before lunch.

Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI was up 2.63%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.84%. India’s Nifty 50 was up a minor 0.4%.. China’s CSI 300 was up 1%. 

Brent crude is at $107 a barrel this morning.

Bitcoin was at $81,107—up slightly on yesterday. 

Nerves are once again fraying as investors wait on news of a U.S.-Iran deal that they have now been promised for some time. 

They may be waiting a little longer, with President Trump’s attention now turned to Beijing, with a bevy of billionaires in tow. Meetings with President Xi are expected to cover trade, AI and Taiwan to name a few. Analysts have some reasons to be optimistic: Relations between the two economic powers may normalize somewhat after the bumpy months following tariff "Liberation Day," and China may even be coaxed into action to help reach a deal with Iran. Resolving the Iran issue feels all the more pressing following yesterday’s CPI report, with inflation now sitting at 3.8%. UBS’s Paul Donovan advised clients this morning not to overemphasize the hotter-than-expected data, but added that the details of the report raise political concerns: Since President Trump took office, he noted, coffee prices are up 24%, beef over 19%, gas over 19% and vegetables 10.5%. 

“These are price increases that consumers notice and remember,” Donovan added. “Trump claimed not to think about Americans’ financial situation, but markets are betting the president does care (and policy decisions will reflect that).” 

Brace for a ‘breathtaking' correction  in stock prices

Staying with stock markets, Fortune's Shawn Tully has noticed a pattern: A handful of famed and decorated investors are warning of an almighty correction coming down the pike. The rumblings........

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