Scientists are using AI to track permafrost thaw as Arctic lakes vanish in hours

Florida gets a lot of attention for its sinkholes, especially when they swallow cars and entire houses. But its sinkhole risk has nothing on Alaska’s.

Much of Alaska’s soil is permafrost – ground that remains below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (0 degrees Celsius) for at least two consecutive years. It is often rich with ice, but when that ice melts, the ground can collapse. As temperatures rise, that’s happening more often across the Arctic.

The consequences are the same as in Florida: substantial property damage as the land that buildings, roads and pipes were built on sinks.

Yet despite the high potential for damage, up-to-date maps of permafrost thaw that could help Arctic residents and community leaders prepare are often rare. To fill in the gap, our team, led by hydrologists and data scientists, created an interactive website to track permafrost thaw in near-real time across the Arctic, using a unique quality of the Arctic’s version of the sinkhole.

Clear signs of permafrost thaw

There is no way to directly measure permafrost without digging into it, but there are signs to watch for.

When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground surface subsides, creating what are known as thermokarst ponds – depressions that fill with water. Much of the Arctic has become dotted by ponds and lakes that formed this way, as temperatures there rise........

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