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Dramatic Changes Are Unlikely in Israel, Even if Netanyahu Is Ousted

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Long before Israel’s 2023 war in Gaza, the Israeli military formulated an offensive strategy known as the Dahiya Doctrine. The idea was to inflict such massive force against an enemy stronghold, including broad destruction of civilian and economic infrastructure, that the adversary would be deterred from tangling with Israel ever again. The doctrine was implemented in Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon—Dahiya is a southern suburb of Beirut and a stronghold of the group. It was coined by Gadi Eisenkot, who served at the time as the head of the military’s operations directorate.

I am reminded of this episode because Israel just had its long-awaited election, and early returns suggest Eisenkot might possibly be the country’s next prime minister. According to Israeli television’s Channel 12 exit poll, Eisenkot’s centrist “change bloc” is projected to control 52 seats in the 120-member parliament, compared to 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and 18 for the Arab-led parties. The results are preliminary—it will take days to count all the ballots and weeks or more before a governing coalition comes together. Eisenkot’s path to power is hardly assured.

Long before Israel’s 2023 war in Gaza, the Israeli military formulated an offensive strategy known as the Dahiya Doctrine. The idea was to inflict such massive force against an enemy stronghold, including broad destruction of civilian and economic infrastructure, that the adversary would be deterred from tangling with Israel ever again. The doctrine was implemented in Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon—Dahiya is a southern suburb of Beirut and a stronghold of the group. It was coined by Gadi Eisenkot, who served at the time as the head of the military’s operations directorate.

I am reminded of this episode because Israel just had its long-awaited election, and early returns suggest Eisenkot might possibly be the country’s next prime minister. According to Israeli television’s Channel 12 exit poll, Eisenkot’s centrist “change bloc” is projected to control 52 seats in the 120-member parliament, compared to 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and 18 for the Arab-led parties. The results are preliminary—it will take days to count all the ballots and weeks or more........

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