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It would be a mistake to view the protests across Iran that peaked on Jan. 7 and 8, and the subsequent brutal crackdown that killed at least 6,506 protesters, solely as a confrontation between state and society. Against a backdrop of economic hardship and political discontent, rival factions within the Islamic Republic have sought to steer, contain, or exploit unrest to advance their own agendas. The latest upheaval unfolded amid intense maneuvering inside the system, as competing power centers jockeyed over economic reform, foreign-policy direction, and control of the political field.

“My analysis is that the start of these widespread protests was likely by the design of the intelligence institutions themselves,” Ali Shakouri-Rad, a former member of Iran’s parliament and reformist activist, said shortly before his arrest in early February. “From the moment it began in the bazaar, they knew this would happen.”

It would be a mistake to view the protests across Iran that peaked on Jan. 7 and 8, and the subsequent brutal crackdown that killed at least 6,506 protesters, solely as a confrontation between state and society. Against a backdrop of economic hardship and political discontent, rival factions within the Islamic Republic have sought to steer, contain, or exploit unrest to advance their own agendas. The latest upheaval unfolded amid intense maneuvering inside the system, as competing power centers jockeyed over economic reform, foreign-policy direction, and control of the political field.

“My analysis is that the start of these widespread protests was likely by the design of the intelligence institutions themselves,” Ali Shakouri-Rad, a former member of Iran’s parliament and reformist activist, said shortly before his arrest in early February. “From the moment it began in the bazaar, they knew this would happen.”

His remarks referred to protests that began on Dec. 28 among bazaaris, or merchants, in Tehran. The protests would peak on Jan. 7 and 8 in a sweeping outpouring of public anger across the country. The state responded with overwhelming brutal force, killing at least 6,506 protesters, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, and imposing a near-total internet shutdown that lasted for weeks.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself framed the unrest in existential terms. He described the protests as “akin to a coup,” declaring that “the coup was suppressed.” Such........

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