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Washington may be focused on the battle over artificial intelligence, but China is also ready to compete among the stars. The rapid progress of China’s space program may not yet be seen as a “Sputnik moment,” but Beijing is a full-spectrum peer competitor with Washington in everything from planned moon bases each powered by nuclear reactors to space weapons.

Space, with an already crowded low Earth orbit (LEO) and few rules, is another bifurcated realm of conflict-prone rivalry that brings, like maritime clashes or the future of AI, systemic challenges to the U.S.-China relationship. From potential nuclear warfare in space to competition over real estate on the moon, China’s ambitions are multifaceted and often in direct competition with those of the United States.

Washington may be focused on the battle over artificial intelligence, but China is also ready to compete among the stars. The rapid progress of China’s space program may not yet be seen as a “Sputnik moment,” but Beijing is a full-spectrum peer competitor with Washington in everything from planned moon bases each powered by nuclear reactors to space weapons.

Space, with an already crowded low Earth orbit (LEO) and few rules, is another bifurcated realm of conflict-prone rivalry that brings, like maritime clashes or the future of AI, systemic challenges to the U.S.-China relationship. From potential nuclear warfare in space to competition over real estate on the moon, China’s ambitions are multifaceted and often in direct competition with those of the United States.

A key part of Beijing’s ambitious strategy is building an integrated satellite network that rivals U.S. capacities. To capitalize on technological breakthroughs, such as Chinese start-up LandSpace’s reusable rocket, China has built a vertically integrated manufacturing base for its space industry, similar to its approach to electric vehicles.

China views space competition holistically, with manufacturing speed and capacity conceived of as a comparative advantage enabled by behemoth aerospace state-owned companies and state support and encouragement for a burgeoning commercial industry where more than 500 players are already competing. Since it is a key national security industry dominated by military-directed state-owned companies, it is a less fiercely cutthroat competitive environment than those for EVs and solar energy—at least for now.

The United States remains largely ahead of China in several key areas, including satellites in orbit, LEO broadband capabilities, and space situational awareness (SSA)—the tracking, characterizing, and predicting of the movement of satellites, debris, and natural objects in Earth’s orbit. The United States still has some 10 times more satellites in orbit than China, and while China’s launch cadence is rising, the country’s 92 total space launches in 2025 were still well below the 165 launches of SpaceX alone.

SpaceX’s September launch of Starship, intended to propel the United States back to the moon, is another measure of U.S. commercial superiority. Given their existing constellations, launch costs, and technological advancement.........

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