Intense fighting is underway in the Middle East. Early on Feb. 28, Israel and the United States struck a range of sites across Iran. It later emerged that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, was killed as bombs rained down on his compound. But both before and after the confirmation of that news, Tehran shot volleys of missiles at Israel, suggesting a command-and-control structure that operates even in the top leadership’s absence. Iran is also attacking several other countries in the region, particularly Gulf states that host U.S. military bases such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

How will the war end? How do each of Iran, Israel, and the United States define success, and how different are their respective thresholds for pain? On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and the Middle East, a former senior advisor in the U.S. State Department, and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Intense fighting is underway in the Middle East. Early on Feb. 28, Israel and the United States struck a range of sites across Iran. It later emerged that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, was killed as bombs rained down on his compound. But both before and after the confirmation of that news, Tehran shot volleys of missiles at Israel, suggesting a command-and-control structure that operates even in the top leadership’s absence. Iran is also attacking several other countries in the region, particularly Gulf states that host U.S. military bases such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

How will the war end? How do each of Iran, Israel, and the United States define success, and how different are their respective thresholds for pain? On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and the Middle East, a former senior advisor in the U.S. State Department, and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: Ali Khamenei was a brutal leader. At 86 years old, he had ruled Iran for more than three decades. Vali, how are you processing his death?

Vali Nasr: In some ways, it was expected, not just because of his advanced age but because taking him out was one of the war goals of both Israel and the United States. It’s momentous for Iran and the Middle East. This is a leader who was in charge of Iran for 36 years and also was the main focus of the Iranian strategy to confront the United States and resist anti-imperialism in the region. So, his passing is a turning point for Iran.

RA: But it’s clear that Iran is not Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro was replaced by a deputy in a one-day mission. Iran is continuing to retaliate despite Khamenei’s death. Who is in charge right now?

VN: Iran’s Islamic Republic has been designed to survive. This goes back to the early years of the republic, when there were assassinations of its president, prime minister, and senior leaders, and continued through the Iran-Iraq War and even the 12-day war with Israel. So, this system is built not to rely on one person. Even though Khamenei was the most significant leader in Iran, who set the course for the country and made the final decisions on things like the nuclear deal, Iran is operationally a multi-nodal system. There are different institutions and different operational leaders. As we can see, even the removal of Khamenei so early in the war has not impacted Iran’s footing. It’s executing a plan and going forward.

He created a system in which there are key leaders, like national security advisor Ali Larijani, the speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the head of the judiciary, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and several layers below them. There’s also the operational side of the state under the presidency, which constitutes what I would call Iran’s deep state of senior statesmen, bureaucrats, military commanders, and clerics. That deep state and the institutions they control are collectively managing the war.

RA: Who might eventually succeed Khamenei? Is that even important in the here and now as we look at these continuing attacks?

VN: We don’t know. I don’t think Iran will name a leader immediately, largely because they have in their rear-view mirror what happened to Hassan Nasrallah’s immediate successor. Israel killed Nasrallah of Hezbollah and then killed his immediate successor, as well. They are moving in the direction of appointing a successor, but we may not see it right away. Those moves are largely to signal continuity to the world, the Iranian population, and Iran’s followers in the region that the system will continue in accordance with the constitution. There will be a supreme leader. But, in reality, it will take some time for that person to actually assert control and consolidate power.

RA: So when you hear the likes of U.S. President Donald Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu encouraging........

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