Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: Africa braces for the economic and political ripple effects of the war on Iran, newly released files show that Jeffrey Epstein had ties with African political elites, and a U.S.-Zimbabwe health deal crumbles.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: Africa braces for the economic and political ripple effects of the war on Iran, newly released files show that Jeffrey Epstein had ties with African political elites, and a U.S.-Zimbabwe health deal crumbles.

Sign up to receive Africa Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.

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Iran’s African Proxies

As the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran escalates, Africa is bracing for the ripple effects of a wide-ranging regional conflict.

Analysts are paying particular attention to the Sahel, where Iran has positioned itself as a security partner to junta-led nations including Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in their fight against jihadist groups.

The current conflict, however, is likely to distract Western attention away from the Sahel, where the United States recently resumed counterterrorism support, and force Tehran to prioritize retaining its weaponry for domestic survival. This may lead to an uptick in Islamist violence in the region, as well as Sahelian states increasingly turning to Russia or Turkey for drones and other military equipment.

“There’s also potential for Iranian-supported groups to carry out violence against Israeli, American, or allied persons and assets,” said Ladd Serwat, a senior analyst for Africa at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. “Most likely are going to be Egypt, Djibouti, and Somalia,” where Iran has ties to the al-Shabab terrorist group.

The possible activation of Iranian networks or a spillover of conflict in the Middle East could worsen internal security challenges throughout Africa. Even before the war, Chadian security officials said last December that they dismantled two criminal networks linked to Iran.

“Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ is facing its most serious test, and for African countries with significant Shia minorities, including Nigeria, the risk of proxy activity increases as Tehran seeks new pressure vectors,” Nigerian risk analysis firm SBM Intelligence wrote on Monday.

Thousands of Shiite Muslims in Nigeria have held nationwide protests organized by the Islamic Movement in Nigeria against the attacks on Iran, a Shiite-majority nation. These demonstrations prompted the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria to issue a security alert on Tuesday in the capital of Abuja.

The protests are largely peaceful, but experts........

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