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Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

In July, the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022, Ukraine intercepted only 29 of Russia’s 195 incoming ballistic missiles, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

As Russia intensifies its ballistic missile attacks, Ukraine is running dangerously low on the interceptors needed to defend against them. Neither of its major sources of support appears willing and able to fill the gap: European allies have already drawn heavily on their own air defense stocks, and the United States continues to deplete its own missile-defense interceptor inventories in its war against Iran. On Aug. 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that supplies of air defense missiles from allies this year have fallen to roughly one-third of their 2025 levels.

In July, the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022, Ukraine intercepted only 29 of Russia’s 195 incoming ballistic missiles, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

As Russia intensifies its ballistic missile attacks, Ukraine is running dangerously low on the interceptors needed to defend against them. Neither of its major sources of support appears willing and able to fill the gap: European allies have already drawn heavily on their own air defense stocks, and the United States continues to deplete its own missile-defense interceptor inventories in its war against Iran. On Aug. 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that supplies of air defense missiles from allies this year have fallen to roughly one-third of their 2025 levels.

Ukraine has explored domestic options to replenish supplies, including seeking permission from Washington to manufacture Patriot interceptors and developing its own Freyja ballistic missile interceptor. But Washington has so far rejected the former, and bringing the latter into service would require substantial capital; engineering work; testing; and, crucially, time.

With Ukraine’s domestic capacity still years away from meeting its needs and U.S. and European supplies constrained, South Korea is one of the few countries capable of filling the gap. Zelensky has appealed to Seoul, saying: “We would very much like to receive support from South Korea in the form of what we lack—air defense systems.” But Seoul has so far declined.

That is a mistake. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, South Korea has emerged as a major arms supplier to Europe. Providing air defense systems to Ukraine would give Seoul an opportunity to prove that........

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