Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi’s visit; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: In the lead-up to the 10th anniversary of the nine-dash line ruling, China rattles sabers and nerves in the South China Sea; Indonesia rolls out the red carpet for Modi’s visit; Myanmar achieves an ASEAN breakthrough; and the family abuse scandal rocking Thailand.

China Rattles Saber on South China Sea Anniversary

Sunday saw the 10-year anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling against China’s nine-dash line. Fourteen countries reacted by reaffirming the ruling. China, predictably, reacted with saber-rattling.

To recap the case: In 2012, prompted by a standoff at Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines sought international arbitration. China refused to participate in or recognize the process. It went ahead anyway, and the court ruling eviscerated China’s position, ruling its infamous nine-dash line invalid and faulting China on other points.

China still refuses to recognize it and has tightened its grip over the area via salami-slicing gray-zone tactics. But the ruling stands.

A question mark also hangs over whether the ruling did any good. Filipino fishermen who used to visit Scarborough Shoal say they have been steadily driven away by Chinese harassment.

To mark the 10-year anniversary, the Philippines and 13 other countries—including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Australia—issued a joint statement reaffirming an “unwavering commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

China also banged its usual drum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared in a statement that China has historic sovereignty to the area, that the ruling is illegal, and the main source of instability is “militarized and coercive behavior” by the U.S. and “other countries.”

More concretely, China also rattled its sabers in the run-up to the anniversary. In June, the People’s Liberation Army deployed bombers, fighter jets, early-warning aircraft, and frigates from its Southern Theater Command to patrol the area around Scarborough Shoal.

Interestingly, a key trigger may have been not just the anniversary but Japan and the Philippines beginning talks to demarcate their maritime boundaries with each other. China is extremely sensitive about Japan’s increasingly active presence in Southeast Asia.

(Notably, China issued a second statement this week, targeted at Japan, invoking World War II and accusing it of “neo-militarism” after Japan’s foreign minister made comments on the anniversary of the ruling.)

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