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“Whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.” Coined by Sir Walter Raleigh and popularized by renowned strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, this maxim has long underpinned U.S. grand strategy. For decades, the United States has relied on overwhelming naval power to perpetuate its military dominance, underwrite the security of global trade, and uphold the rules-based international order.

That era is coming to an end.

“Whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.” Coined by Sir Walter Raleigh and popularized by renowned strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, this maxim has long underpinned U.S. grand strategy. For decades, the United States has relied on overwhelming naval power to perpetuate its military dominance, underwrite the security of global trade, and uphold the rules-based international order.

That era is coming to an end.

Whereas U.S. naval power once faced few meaningful constraints, the scope of its dominance has narrowed significantly. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the most dramatic example of this change. The ease with which Iran has used drones, mines, and cheap missiles to obstruct Hormuz suggests that the United States can no longer guarantee freedom of navigation—even against weaker adversaries—through some of the world’s narrowest sea lanes, where geography and the proliferation of inexpensive weapons put even powerful navies at a disadvantage.

The Strait of Hormuz is unique in that there are no maritime alternatives, but it is not the only place that the U.S. ability to ensure the unconditional security of maritime commerce has been challenged. Just to the west, Houthi forces kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to most traffic for all of 2024 (Russia and China secured safe passage for their own ships) despite a U.S. military campaign to weaken and dislodge the group.

Meanwhile, China’s rapid naval expansion and immense shipbuilding capacity have made uncontested U.S. maritime dominance increasingly unsustainable even outside of the world’s choke points. The United States retains clear advantages on the high seas, but its freedom to maneuver is now limited even in regional waters, particularly in parts of East Asia and the Arctic, where, in a contingency, U.S. warships could be prevented from approaching close to an adversary’s coast by powerful anti-ship missiles or underwater sea drones.

For many in Washington, the end of guaranteed freedom of navigation is an unacceptable prospect. Yet while these changes pose new economic and military challenges, they do not constitute an existential threat to U.S. security or core interests. The........

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