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In discussing the dramatic seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, over the weekend, President Donald Trump declared that the United States would now “take back” the country’s oil. Yet he has offered little clarity on what exactly this means.

How the administration answers that question will carry lasting consequences for global oil markets, geopolitics, and the world order—far more significant than any immediate price effects from more Venezuelan supply. If Trump oversees Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy that can attract international investment, this could provide needed resources to rebuild the country and help ease energy prices over the long run. If, however, he seeks to impose a mercantilist model in pursuit of short-term financial gain, he will undermine the global energy market on which U.S. security depends.

In discussing the dramatic seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, over the weekend, President Donald Trump declared that the United States would now “take back” the country’s oil. Yet he has offered little clarity on what exactly this means.

How the administration answers that question will carry lasting consequences for global oil markets, geopolitics, and the world order—far more significant than any immediate price effects from more Venezuelan supply. If Trump oversees Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy that can attract international investment, this could provide needed resources to rebuild the country and help ease energy prices over the long run. If, however, he seeks to impose a mercantilist model in pursuit of short-term financial gain, he will undermine the global energy market on which U.S. security depends.

Despite Venezuela’s status as the world’s largest holder of crude oil reserves, the immediate impact of Maduro’s ouster on oil markets will be modest. Oil prices may ease slightly if fears of further military escalation recede, but the near-term outlook for Venezuelan production is largely unchanged. Venezuela produces under 1 million barrels per day, less than 1 percent of global supply, and even optimistic projections suggest it would take two to three years in a best-case scenario to double that output.

That stands in stark contrast to Venezuela’s oil past. In the mid-1990s, the country opened its energy sector to foreign investment and technology, growing production to 3.5 million barrels per day. In 1998, Luis Giusti, the CEO of........

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