Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: The war in Iran tests assumptions about the U.S.-China rivalry, the China-Japan clash intensifies, and China’s artificial intelligence boom is driving a compute shortage.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: The war in Iran tests assumptions about the U.S.-China rivalry, the China-Japan clash intensifies, and China’s artificial intelligence boom is driving a compute shortage.

Who Comes Out Ahead From the Iran War?

As the United States flounders in its war on Iran, there has been a rush among analysts to declare China a winner of the conflict. Many argue that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s patience and restraint have strengthened Beijing’s long-term position over an increasingly distracted and unstable Washington.

There is some truth here, especially when it comes to U.S. credibility with allies. The decision to pull U.S. missile defense assets from South Korea, for instance, is a disaster for the alliance. As I’ve noted before, U.S. President Donald Trump’s volatility makes China increasingly look like a stable alternative.

Still, I’m cautious about claims that Beijing will emerge as a clear victor from the Middle East conflict, which rest on a zero-sum view of the U.S.-China relationship, where a defeat for one is automatically a victory for the other. This is, as the Chinese like to say—often while deflecting criticism of human rights abuses, to be sure—“Cold War thinking.”

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union tried to contest the United States on both geopolitical and ideological grounds. That ideological dimension is weaker in........

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