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In the wake of their short-lived conflict with Iran last year, the United States and Israel could almost be forgiven for any hubris they might have felt.

That 12-day war was armed conflict of the kind that Washington had spent decades perfecting, and it seemed to go almost completely according to script. A combination of exquisite intelligence and peerless, high-tech weaponry—including stealthy aircraft and so-called standoff munitions, which could be fired outside the range of Iran’s defensive systems—allowed the United States and Israel to attack Iran with near impunity, bombing key nuclear sites and assassinating military leaders and scientists.

In the wake of their short-lived conflict with Iran last year, the United States and Israel could almost be forgiven for any hubris they might have felt.

That 12-day war was armed conflict of the kind that Washington had spent decades perfecting, and it seemed to go almost completely according to script. A combination of exquisite intelligence and peerless, high-tech weaponry—including stealthy aircraft and so-called standoff munitions, which could be fired outside the range of Iran’s defensive systems—allowed the United States and Israel to attack Iran with near impunity, bombing key nuclear sites and assassinating military leaders and scientists.

What is more, the United States’ advanced ship-based anti-missile systems, Israel’s Iron Dome shield, and the quiet cooperation of a clutch of Iran’s Arab neighbors, which helped track long-distance drone and ballistic missile ripostes and sometimes shot them down, kept U.S. and Israeli casualties to a minimum. After the clash, a feeling seemed to have spread among U.S. and Israeli officials that their alliance had finally managed to back Iran into a corner, revealing their adversary to be a mere paper tiger.

The feelings of exultation this produced quickly turned infectious and then, finally, self-deluding. With Iran so utterly outclassed, almost anything seemed possible. A future in which the country’s proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen—could be tamed, and perhaps even eliminated, felt within reach. And Iran itself, so weakened in the face of such proven might, could be brought to its knees and dictated to. The need for patience and diplomacy had been revoked.

This was the backdrop against which U.S. President Donald Trump sold the sequel to the 12-day war as a mere “excursion.” The campaign, which was launched in February, began with a lethal strike against Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and some........

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