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In the weeks before the U.S.-Iran war began, the Houthis promised that in the event of conflict, the Red Sea would run with the blood of their enemies. In speech after speech, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the group’s leader, told his followers that any attack on Iran would trigger an immediate and devastating response. The movement that had spent two years disrupting global shipping, launching ballistic missiles at Israel, and branding itself as the most committed member of the “axis of resistance” staked its credibility on a single proposition: If Iran is hit, we strike.

Iran has been hit constantly for more than a week. The Houthis have not struck.

In the weeks before the U.S.-Iran war began, the Houthis promised that in the event of conflict, the Red Sea would run with the blood of their enemies. In speech after speech, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the group’s leader, told his followers that any attack on Iran would trigger an immediate and devastating response. The movement that had spent two years disrupting global shipping, launching ballistic missiles at Israel, and branding itself as the most committed member of the “axis of resistance” staked its credibility on a single proposition: If Iran is hit, we strike.

Iran has been hit constantly for more than a week. The Houthis have not struck.

In the span of months, the Houthis watched Israel kill their prime minister, a dozen cabinet members, and their chief of staff. They saw fellow proxy leader Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah die in Beirut and then saw their patron’s supreme leader die. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) infrastructure that built their arsenal is being dismantled in real time. The movement that spent two years projecting invincibility is now calculating from a significantly weakened position.

At the same time, popular sentiment is running high: On March 6, thousands filled al-Sabeen Square in Sanaa, chanting in Persian for a dead Iranian leader. Rallies were staged across every governorate. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi seemingly met the moment when he pledged to join the fight “at any moment.” But no missile has been fired, no ship has been struck, and no drone has crossed the Red Sea.

The reasons why have to do with the structural changes that the Houthis have undergone over the past decade, as well as the group’s strategic goals for the future.

Between August and October 2025, Israeli airstrikes in Sanaa killed Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi, approximately a dozen cabinet members, and Chief of Staff Mohammed al-Ghamari. These were precision operations targeting individuals, not area bombardments targeting infrastructure. They used the same intelligence-driven methodology that was deployed to kill........

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