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While I’ve done a decent job of predicting the overall arc of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, I’ve also gotten some things profoundly wrong. For example, I—like many in Washington—thought we were headed into a new period of tension and competition with China. Worse, I told a journalist last year that I didn’t think Trump wanted a war with Iran, a mistake that has prompted me to reconsider not just Trump’s approach to Iran, but my understanding of his decision-making process writ large.

While I’ve done a decent job of predicting the overall arc of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, I’ve also gotten some things profoundly wrong. For example, I—like many in Washington—thought we were headed into a new period of tension and competition with China. Worse, I told a journalist last year that I didn’t think Trump wanted a war with Iran, a mistake that has prompted me to reconsider not just Trump’s approach to Iran, but my understanding of his decision-making process writ large.

But in thinking through predictions about the second Trump administration, I’m struck that practically everybody got Pete Hegseth wrong. Is there a single person who predicted that the secretary of defense would become one of the most influential—potentially even the most effective—senior officials within the Trump administration? I can’t find one, and that’s astounding. In May, the Washington Post described Hegseth as an “emboldened, ascendant figure” within the Trump administration, while more recently the Bloomberg editorial board penned a piece on his “generational damage” to the U.S. military. And today, Hegseth’s State of the Force speech will offer him another opportunity to highlight the drastic changes he has made in how the American military approaches recruiting, training, and even combat.

Back when Trump first proposed Hegseth as his defense secretary, it prompted a wave of incredulity in the press and in Washington. Sure, Hegseth had a military........

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