Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

Here’s the scenario of a war game played Monday by a group of current members of Congress and former U.S. military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials. It’s 2028, the Ukraine war remains a bloody stalemate, and Russia sees a chance to further splinter Europe by attacking Moldova. One of its drones hits a fuel depot in Romania, a NATO member, killing civilians.

What does the United States do? The answer in this simulation, as I fear would be the case in real life, was a tepid response—and an implicit statement that NATO’s Article 5 pledge of collective security is almost a dead letter. In the simulation, the members of Congress agreed that the American public wouldn’t support strong action. And without U.S. leadership, Europe would be fragmented and disorganized.

Here’s the scenario of a war game played Monday by a group of current members of Congress and former U.S. military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials. It’s 2028, the Ukraine war remains a bloody stalemate, and Russia sees a chance to further splinter Europe by attacking Moldova. One of its drones hits a fuel depot in Romania, a NATO member, killing civilians.

What does the United States do? The answer in this simulation, as I fear would be the case in real life, was a tepid response—and an implicit statement that NATO’s Article 5 pledge of collective security is almost a dead letter. In the simulation, the members of Congress agreed that the American public wouldn’t support strong action. And without U.S. leadership, Europe would be fragmented and disorganized.

Welcome to World War Next. The simulation, co-sponsored by Cornell University’s Brooks Institute and the Rockefeller Foundation, was the clearest demonstration I’ve seen that the framework that has protected U.S. and European security for 81 years is crumbling, as shared military and diplomatic tools disappear. And the worst of it is that President Donald Trump is part of the demolition team. (I attended the simulation and was allowed to report on it as long as I didn’t identify participants.)

The grim fact is that Russia’s war on Ukraine is escalating and spreading to NATO countries. That’s a new reality that most Americans (including many senior Trump administration officials) don’t seem to recognize. Russia’s “hybrid” war against European supporters of Ukraine is moving from the gray zone to blood red, and the United States is doing little to........

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