As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran drags on, it’s possible to imagine both a negotiated settlement and a resumption of the fighting. The outcome—either war or peace—depends on how the three parties to the conflict see their goals, what risks they’re willing to take, and what limitations they face at home and abroad. In an earlier piece, I wrote about gaps in our knowledge of Iran today, which make it difficult to predict the country’s next moves. This article identifies similar gaps in our understanding of the U.S. and Israeli positions.

What do the United States and Israel consider “victory”?

Both U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a wide range of goals when war broke out. The two countries both oppose Iranian nuclear enrichment, seeing it as a way to build a nuclear bomb. They are also bent on eliminating Iran’s missile and drone threat, along with its naval forces, and in general seek to weaken the country’s military capabilities. Both oppose Iran’s regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and have declared support for regime change in Iran. After Iran threatened maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a new goal—freedom of navigation—was added to the list.

As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran drags on, it’s possible to imagine both a negotiated settlement and a resumption of the fighting. The outcome—either war or peace—depends on how the three parties to the conflict see their goals, what risks they’re willing to take, and what limitations they face at home and abroad. In an earlier piece, I wrote about gaps in our knowledge of Iran today, which make it difficult to predict the country’s next moves. This article identifies similar gaps in our understanding of the U.S. and Israeli positions.

What do the United States and Israel consider “victory”?

Both U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a wide range of goals when war broke out. The two countries both oppose Iranian nuclear enrichment, seeing it as a way to build a nuclear bomb. They are also bent on eliminating Iran’s missile and drone threat, along with its naval forces, and in general seek to weaken the country’s military capabilities. Both oppose Iran’s regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and have declared support for regime change in Iran. After Iran threatened maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a new goal—freedom of navigation—was added to the list.

For almost all of these goals, success is subject to interpretation. More than half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed or damaged, and its missile stockpile has been halved—is that enough, or must the missile threat from Iran be removed completely for this goal to be met? Regime change looks unlikely, and if anything, the war has left hard-liners even more entrenched. Can the United States truly win with a more conservative regime in place?

The........

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