Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a lot to worry about these days. What he originally planned as a quick regime-change operation in Ukraine has now gone on longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, and Kyiv is increasingly bringing the war to the Russian heartland. (On June 3, guests at Putin’s showcase international forum in St. Petersburg awoke to the sight of blazing fires from Ukrainian drones.) The Russian economy is showing serious signs of strain. And even China, Putin’s most important friend and patron, has shown that it’s not willing to give Moscow unlimited support.

But there’s another problem brewing in the background—one that could produce serious instability at a time when Putin can least afford it. The Kremlin is confronting a potentially explosive succession crisis in Chechnya, the North Caucasus republic that has a long history of generating turmoil entirely out of proportion to its tiny size. The problem: Chechnya’s all-powerful leader, President Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is suffering from a serious illness, probably terminal, that could remove him from the scene at any moment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a lot to worry about these days. What he originally planned as a quick regime-change operation in Ukraine has now gone on longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany, and Kyiv is increasingly bringing the war to the Russian heartland. (On June 3, guests at Putin’s showcase international forum in St. Petersburg awoke to the sight of blazing fires from Ukrainian drones.) The Russian economy is showing serious signs of strain. And even China, Putin’s most important friend and patron, has shown that it’s not willing to give Moscow unlimited support.

But there’s another problem brewing in the background—one that could produce serious instability at a time when Putin can least afford it. The Kremlin is confronting a potentially explosive succession crisis in Chechnya, the North Caucasus republic that has a long history of generating turmoil entirely out of proportion to its tiny size. The problem: Chechnya’s all-powerful leader, President Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is suffering from a serious illness, probably terminal, that could remove him from the scene at any moment.

Kadyrov’s favored successor,........

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