Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

Europeans are rattled. A bomb-laden drone attacked a Ukrainian cargo plane in the eastern German city of Leipzig, but it failed to go off. In another incident, German authorities revealed that they had thwarted an assassination plot targeting the CEO of one of the country’s leading drone-manufacturing companies. Outside Rome, a titanic blast destroyed an ammunition factory whose products are used by Ukrainian forces—just a few days after another explosion hit a plant in Bulgaria whose owner was previously reported to have been targeted by Russian security services. And a Spanish fighter jet on a NATO air-policing mission shot down a drone that crossed into Romanian airspace. A NATO spokesperson said that the drone was probably of Russian origin.

And that was just the first half of August.

Europeans are rattled. A bomb-laden drone attacked a Ukrainian cargo plane in the eastern German city of Leipzig, but it failed to go off. In another incident, German authorities revealed that they had thwarted an assassination plot targeting the CEO of one of the country’s leading drone-manufacturing companies. Outside Rome, a titanic blast destroyed an ammunition factory whose products are used by Ukrainian forces—just a few days after another explosion hit a plant in Bulgaria whose owner was previously reported to have been targeted by Russian security services. And a Spanish fighter jet on a NATO air-policing mission shot down a drone that crossed into Romanian airspace. A NATO spokesperson said that the drone was probably of Russian origin.

And that was just the first half of August.

None of this is completely unprecedented. For many months now, Europeans have been assailed by a series of hostile actions, some clearly traced back to Russia, that have aimed to undermine Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine. Russia has cut undersea cables, jammed GPS signals, and staged sabotage using disaffected locals recruited through the internet. Some observers have taken to describing this campaign as gray-zone warfare, referring to aggressive measures that fall below the threshold of outright war.

Right now, though, the “gray-zone” modifier looks increasingly obsolete—especially given the growing brazenness of Russian threats accompanying its actions. On Aug. 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged unspecified retaliation against any countries daring to interfere with Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers—a clear reference to a recent decision by the European Union that would allow the confiscation of Russian oil from sanctioned vessels. In an interview two days later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov extended the threat to include any countries that dare to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invaders. “We will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kyiv’s war machine,” he declared. “We are already doing this, and........

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