Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Get audio access with any FP subscription.

ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

When the United States and Israel struck Iran in February, Tehran did what it had long threatened to do: shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water that normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. Missiles flew. Mines dropped to the seabed. Tankers turned back.

Blockading the only exit from the Persian Gulf was not just a physical act but also a financial one. War-risk premiums for ships transiting Hormuz soared overnight as private insurers repriced coverage beyond what any shipping company could absorb or refused to write it at all.

When the United States and Israel struck Iran in February, Tehran did what it had long threatened to do: shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water that normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. Missiles flew. Mines dropped to the seabed. Tankers turned back.

Blockading the only exit from the Persian Gulf was not just a physical act but also a financial one. War-risk premiums for ships transiting Hormuz soared overnight as private insurers repriced coverage beyond what any shipping company could absorb or refused to write it at all.

China was among the nations caught in the squeeze, despite years of courting Tehran and receiving guarantees that Chinese ships would be allowed through in the event of a blockade. Roughly half of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East. If Beijing cannot keep its oil flowing when a friendly power controls a critical choke point, then what happens when an adversary, such as the United States, controls the next one?

That question should haunt Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has built the world’s largest fleet of electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines. But its factories, trucks, ships, and fighter jets still run on oil. Roughly 11 million of the 15 million to 16 million barrels that it burns per day travel by sea through waters that Beijing does not control. Although nearly 40 percent transits the Strait of Hormuz, that is not the choke point that matters most.

That distinction goes to the Strait of Malacca, the long, narrow sea-lane co-managed by Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. Its narrowest stretch, the Phillips Channel, is less than 3 kilometers wide. (Hormuz’s narrowest navigable channel is about 4 kilometers.) Some 23.2 million oil barrels cross Malacca every day, more than what flows through Hormuz. About 80 percent of China’s oil imports pass through Malacca via........

© Foreign Policy