After more than 1,000 days of fighting, Sudan’s civil war looks to be entering a new and even more deadly chapter. This escalation could fully erase the borders that have nominally contained this conflict and unleash new violence across the wider Horn of Africa region and beyond. Sudan is already de facto partitioned between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which split the country between west and east, respectively. However, with the conflict now a single-front war centered in the central Kordofan region, the RSF’s main backer, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), may be preparing to open a new front through Ethiopia. Doing so would further regionalize the conflict, creating another flash point in the ongoing battle for influence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and threatening to pull in Egypt and Eritrea more directly.

Washington recognizes that a regional war would be disastrous for its Red Sea policy and would undermine U.S. interests in counterterrorism, maritime security, and containing Iran. That’s one reason it agreed to help bring Sudan’s war to an end and recently dispatched Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau to visit the Horn of Africa. But to achieve this, the Trump administration now needs to draw its own red lines with the UAE to ensure that the region’s newest power doesn’t recklessly widen the war.

After more than 1,000 days of fighting, Sudan’s civil war looks to be entering a new and even more deadly chapter. This escalation could fully erase the borders that have nominally contained this conflict and unleash new violence across the wider Horn of Africa region and beyond. Sudan is already de facto partitioned between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which split the country between west and east, respectively. However, with the conflict now a single-front war centered in the central Kordofan region, the RSF’s main backer, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), may be preparing to open a new front through Ethiopia. Doing so would further regionalize the conflict, creating another flash point in the ongoing battle for influence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and threatening to pull in Egypt and Eritrea more directly.

Washington recognizes that a regional war would be disastrous for its Red Sea policy and would undermine U.S. interests in counterterrorism, maritime security, and containing Iran. That’s one reason it agreed to help bring Sudan’s war to an end and recently dispatched Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau to visit the Horn of Africa. But to achieve this, the Trump administration now needs to draw its own red lines with the UAE to ensure that the region’s newest power doesn’t recklessly widen the war.

The partition in Sudan is a result of foreign backing as much as it is the tactical gains of the Sudanese belligerents. In this regard, there has been no greater force than the UAE. Whether motivated by the geostrategic advantages of controlling a Sudanese client state or under the misguided belief that defeating Sudan’s Islamists is best achieved by supporting a genocidal militia group, the UAE has emerged as the chief sponsor of the RSF. Crucial to the UAE’s support has been a constant effort to diversify supply lines. In the early days of the war, unwanted publicity caused the UAE to scale back efforts to send arms to the RSF........

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