Brazilians voted in the first round of the country’s presidential election on Oct. 4, sending Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to a runoff. Another key race was decided that day: In congressional elections, right-wing parties triumphed and are expected to hold at least 45 of 81 seats in the Senate.

Brazil’s Senate confirms (and can remove) justices on the Supreme Court, whose expanding judicial reach has made it a central arbiter of Brazilian democracy. Decisions by the bench could yet shape the outcome of the runoff, set for Oct. 25.

Brazilians voted in the first round of the country’s presidential election on Oct. 4, sending Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to a runoff. Another key race was decided that day: In congressional elections, right-wing parties triumphed and are expected to hold at least 45 of 81 seats in the Senate.

Brazil’s Senate confirms (and can remove) justices on the Supreme Court, whose expanding judicial reach has made it a central arbiter of Brazilian democracy. Decisions by the bench could yet shape the outcome of the runoff, set for Oct. 25.

On Sept. 15, Chief Justice Edson Fachin convened a televised session to decide whether Justice Alexandre de Moraes—who oversaw Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution and is reviled by the far right—should be investigated by the Federal Police. (Brazilian law requires courts to authorize investigations into their own members.) The justices never reached a decision: They split on a procedural motion, with Moraes voting on his own case, before Justice Flávio Dino asked for up to 90 days to study the file. That clock runs until mid-December—well after the runoff.

The case swirling around Moraes stems from the collapse last year of Banco Master, a midsize Brazilian lender. The scandal—like the Operation Car Wash investigation of the mid-2010s—has ensnared many members of Brazil’s political and business elite. Federal Police hope to examine whether Moraes improperly assisted Master’s controlling shareholder, Daniel Vorcaro, and whether that conduct was connected to a legal services contract between Master and Moraes’s wife’s law firm. Moraes denies wrongdoing. He has not been charged with a crime.

The scandal has become a hot topic on the campaign trail, and one likely to benefit Flávio. By putting off a decision on whether to investigate Moraes, the Supreme Court has handed Flávio a rallying cry, left Lula defending an institution that he has no plan to reform, and made the new right-wing Senate the arbiter of the court’s future.

Prior to its collapse, Banco Master held only 0.57 percent of Brazil’s banking assets. But its unique business model made it significant.

The bank sold certificates of deposit paying up to 140 percent of the interbank benchmark rate, far above what large banks offered. It leaned on the Credit Guarantee Fund, an insurer financed by member banks that covers up to about $49,000 per investor. (Although privately funded, the fund operates under government-set rules, and eligible banks are required to join and contribute.) This allowed Master to raise money without investors scrutinizing what it bought, including illiquid assets and credit portfolios that, according to investigators, lacked adequate backing.

Master also drew on public money. Banco de Brasília (BRB), a........

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